Early Indicators:

Paul Volcker questioned by commentator Adam Smith about the future - what was lurking out there, he said when he was the chairman of the Fed he was surprised that other countries continued to lend to us to balance our budget - they lend us as much as we save and that can't go on forever - so what happens if the foreigners cut back their lending to us? we have a weak dollar, higher interest rates, less investment, a vicious cycle - lower productivity, possibly more protectionism, a decline in our international influence ... why does everyone care so much what the Fed and Alan Greenspan think? - it's because the Fed and its monetary policy are the only game in town - Congress and the White House are virtually paralysed - bickering with each other, trading special interest, rudderless, creating deficits so large no one talks about them any more - interest is the larger item on our debt than defence, roads and schools - the Fed has done a good job ... but it was never meant to be this important. -- [PBS NBR commentary, economist Adam Smith, Mar31-1992]